Writing · Nº 041065 essays
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Ideas from inside the work. Explore technology, entrepreneurship, and the practice of building things that last.
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Clear filtersEngineeringHow to Detect Manipulation in Prediction MarketsPrediction markets can be pushed to send a false signal or grab a headline. Here is how market manipulation works and how to detect and design against it.StrategyForecast Sales With a Prediction Market, Not the PipelineA prediction market forecasts sales better than the pipeline number because it prices in doubt. Reps commit to quotas. A market bets on the truth.EngineeringHow to Handle Disputed Prediction Market OutcomesSooner or later a market resolves and someone contests it. Here is how to design a dispute process for prediction markets that settles fairly and keeps trust.EngineeringPrediction Market Design: Liquidity and FeesA prediction market with no liquidity gives useless prices. Here is how market design, liquidity provision, and fees decide whether your odds mean anything.OperatingRun an Internal Prediction Market to Forecast Your MetricsAn internal prediction market surfaces what your team actually believes about hitting the number. Status meetings hide that. A market prices it in the open.StrategyWho Resolves a Prediction Market, and Can You Trust ThemEvery prediction market needs someone to declare the outcome. Here is how market resolution works, the oracle problem, and how to pick a resolver you can trust.EngineeringWrite Market Resolution Questions That Hold UpMost prediction market disputes trace back to a sloppy question. Here is how to write a market resolution question that resolves cleanly and cannot be argued.